This October’s Housing Sweet Spot: Rates Down, Inventory Up

After a Year of Sticker Shock, Buyers Finally Have a Tailwind

The 30-year fixed mortgage rate slipped to 6.41%, an eight-basis-point drop week over week and the lowest level of 2025 so far, with Freddie Mac’s national average tracking close behind at 6.34%.

That combination — lower rates and rising inventory — doesn’t happen often, and it’s arriving just as listing supply loosens.

Mortgage Rates: Finding the Floor

Rate relief is modest, but the directional shift matters for home buying budgets and qualification.

With the government shutdown delaying key economic reports the Fed relies on, rates have held relatively steady — another reason serious buyers should run updated scenarios now and consider rate locks if a target payment is in reach.

Inventory Turns the Tide

The supply picture is the biggest change: active listings are at their highest since 2019, up 15% year over year.

In some metros, new listings surged 23% month over month in September, and homes are sitting roughly a week longer than last year.

More options + more time = more leverage — especially for well-qualified buyers who can move quickly.

Prices Cool, Affordability Still Bites

After years of double-digit gains, price growth has downshifted hard.

August’s median sale price landed at $439,278, just 1.5% higher year-over-year, with some high-inventory markets already flat or slightly down.

It’s welcome relief — but affordability remains strained, since prices are still ~50% higher than early-decade levels, and mortgage costs, while improved, are not “cheap.”

Expect more strategic pricing, targeted concessions, and appraisal-supported negotiations as buyers and sellers recalibrate.

Rules of the Game: What Changed in 2025

Since August 2024, the industry has operated under the NAR settlement framework.

Key shifts include:

• Buyer-broker compensation is no longer advertised on the MLS.
• Written buyer-broker agreements are required before showings.

Early data suggests outcomes are less dramatic than the predicted 25–50% commission collapse, but real downward pressure and more direct negotiation are evident.

Also on deck:

• FinCEN renewed its Geographic Targeting Orders through October 9, 2025.
• The AVM Quality Control Rule took effect October 1, 2025, adding new compliance steps that affect timelines and documentation.

Buyers and sellers should expect clearer fee conversations up front and more formality around valuations and title processes.

Macro Currents: The Fed, Jobs, and Sentiment

On September 17, the Federal Reserve delivered 2025’s first rate cut (-25 bps to 4.00–4.25%).

Yet softer hiring (+22k jobs in August, 4.3% unemployment) and sticky inflation (core PCE +2.9% YoY, shelter +3.6%) keep the outlook mixed.

No surprise, then, that consumer sentiment remains cautious — 72% still say it’s a bad time to buy.

Translation: motivated, prepared buyers face less competition than typical for fall — an edge that can be leveraged strategically.

Why Mid-October Matters

Analysts highlight October 12–18 as a prime buying window, with potential savings north of $15,000 versus summer peaks — thanks to lower rates, more supply, and cooler bidding activity.

If you’ve been waiting for a tactical moment, this is it — provided your financing and documents are ready.

Tech Watch: Tokenized Real Estate Goes Live

This month also marks the global launch of T3RRA, a UK-based proptech platform with $2 billion in tokenized assets across 70+ countries.

While still early for mainstream U.S. transactions, the platform blends AI for property scoring and forecasting with blockchain for title and compliance — pointing to faster, more transparent deal processes ahead.

Bottom Line

For the first time in years, market structure favors prepared buyers: more inventory, cooler prices, and the best rates of 2025, all against a backdrop of cautious sentiment that keeps competition low.

Sellers can still win by pricing to current comps and offering targeted concessions.

If you’re planning to act, use October’s window to your advantage.